Tesla (TSLA) delivers 308k+ cars in Q4, falls a little short of the 2021 estimate of 1 million despite challenges



Tesla (TSLA) released its Q4 2021 vehicle production and delivery numbers yesterday. This is the 6th consecutive record-breaking quarter by the automaker. And yearly deliveries also reached their peak since the company went public in 2012 with the first production Model S luxury sedan.

Despite every quarter of the previous year being a new record at Tesla, the automaker fell short of CEO Elon Musk’s prediction of 1 million vehicle production in 2021. But still, the automaker was able to beat the Wall Street consensus estimates by 16% (source: Rob Maurer / Wall Street, full video below).

The major contributors to this unexpected lower volume of production and deliveries are the delays in Giga Berlin and Giga Texas production start, chip shortage, and the Model S/X production halting at the Fremont factory.

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Tesla Q4 2021 Vehicle Production & Delivery Numbers

 ProductionDeliveriesSubject to operating lease accounting
Model S/X13,10911,75017%
Model 3/Y292,731296,8505%
Source: Tesla, Inc. investor relations website.

If we compare the total production numbers from Q4 2021 to Q4 2020 (179,757), Tesla has achieved a 70% jump in production QoQ. As for deliveries, the growth is almost the same, around ~71%.

Even when compared to the previous quarter of this year, Q3 2021, the total production has increased from 237,823 to 305,840 which is a growth of 28.5%. And for Q3 vs. Q4, deliveries went up from 241,300 to 308,600 (a growth of around 22% QoQ).

The Model S/X suffered a significant low compared to Q4 2020 and the entire year as well. This downward trend happened mainly because of the late production start of the design refresh Model S and Model X. In Q1 2021, there was no Model S/X were produced.

Tesla 2021 vs. 2020 Production & Deliveries

Tesla had set an ambitious target for 2021 production and deliveries, setting it at almost double the numbers of 2020. In the year 2020, Tesla produced a total of 509,737 cars and delivered 499,550 Model S, 3, X, and Y.

Let’s compare how Tesla did in overall vehicle production and deliveries this year compared to the previous despite Giga Texas and Giga Berlin not starting production on time.

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YoY Production

 2020 Production2021 ProductionYoY Difference (% Growth)
Model S/X54,80524,390-30,415 (-56%)
Model 3/Y454,932906,032+451,100 (+99%)
Total509,737930,422+420,685 (+83%)
Data source: Tesla, Inc. *Percentage numbers rounded off to nearest integer.

With the same two operational factories in California, the United States and Shanghai, China — Tesla has ramped up Model 3/Y production to almost double this year. The experience gained through these ramp-ups will certainly help scale production at soon-to-be operational Giga Texas and Giga Berlin.

YoY Deliveries

 2020 Deliveries2021 DeliveriesYoY Difference (% Growth)
Model S/X57,03924,964-32,075 (-57%)
Model 3/Y442,511911,208+468,697 (+106%)
Total499,550936,172+436,622 (+93%)
Data source: Tesla, Inc. *Percentage numbers rounded off to nearest integer.

If we put up the above total production and delivery numbers into a line graph, it would look something like the following graph — an almost 45° straight line towards the top.

Graph: Tesla production and deliveries: 2021 vs. 2020 YoY.
Graph: Tesla production and deliveries: 2021 vs. 2020 YoY. Data source: Tesla, Inc.

Tesla started delivering Model Y electric SUVs to Europe from China in August 2021. This acted as a catalyst in driving delivery numbers to what they look like today. The automaker hasn’t yet disclosed how many Tesla Model 3 and Model Y cars it has delivered to Europe last year.

Tesla aims to start the production of Cybertruck at Giga Texas this year. This development will add another vehicle to the production and deliveries numbers and help broaden Tesla’s horizon beyond cars into the pickup truck realm as well.

These tremendous results by Tesla have certainly impacted its share price as the market opened today after the weekend. At the time of this writing (2:59 PM EST) the TSLA share is trading around $1,194. This is an increase of about $137 in a single day which equals about a 13% raise.

Stay tuned for constant Tesla updates, follow us on: 
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Iqtidar Ali
Iqtidar Alihttp://www.teslaoracle.com
Iqtidar has been writing about Tesla, Elon Musk, and EVs for more than 3 years on XAutoWorld.com, many of his articles have been republished on CleanTechnica and InsideEVs, maintains a healthy relationship with the Tesla community across the Social Media sphere. You can reach him on Twitter @IqtidarAlii

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