Tesla (TSLA) will need an all-time record quarter (Q4) to deliver 1.8M vehicles in 2023 — Q3 Earnings Call, more

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During the Q3 2023 Earnings Call, Tesla CEO Elon Musk said that the automaker is still seeking to achieve its original vehicle delivery target of 1.8 million vehicles this year. Taking the vehicle delivery records from the past three quarters, this guidance looks a bit ambitious.

Tesla (TSLA) will need to score its highest-ever quarter to deliver 1.8 million vehicles this year. The automaker must deliver at least 475,926 cars in Q3 2023 to reach the 1,800,000 units mark.

Tesla delivered a total of 1,313,851 vehicles in 2022 which was a record year for the company. Tesla has surpassed this number in the first three quarters of this year by delivering 1,324,074 vehicles from Q1 to Q3 2023. The Austin, Texas-based automaker achieved this target besides a setback in vehicle deliveries in Q3.

The following table lists Tesla’s vehicle production and delivery numbers in Q1, Q2, and Q3 2023 and the remaining units needed in Q4 to reach the 1.8M goal.

 ProductionDeliveries
Q1 2023440,808422,875
Q2 2023479,700466,140
Q3 2023430,488435,059
Total till Q31,350,9961,324,074
Q4 2023
(required units to reach 1.8M cars)
449,004475926
Source: Tesla (TSLA) Investor Relations website.
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A large number of Tesla Model 3 Highland cars being delivered from the Port of Zeebrugge, Belgium to Europe via trains.
A large number of Giga Berlin-made Tesla Model Y cars are being delivered from the factory to Europe using trains. Credit: @LucWaterlot / X (Twitter).

The numbers above suggest that Tesla has to produce just under 450K cars to reach 1.8 million units of production this year. But the real challenge is delivering around ~476K vehicles — which is not impossible but tough for the automaker.

Currently, Q2 2023 holds the record for being the best quarter for Tesla in terms of vehicle deliveries.

However, we are observing many shipments of the new Tesla Model 3 Highland reaching the ports of Europe. Generally, vehicle sales spike during the last quarter of the year in Europe and North America, so Tesla might achieve its goal rather easily than expected.

The popularity of the Model 3 Highland and the start of the new Model Y deliveries in China will be the main contributors to Q4. Although Tesla has started Cybertruck production and deliveries will begin on 30th November, it is not expected to add a sizable chunk to the overall delivery numbers. According to Elon Musk, scaling Cybertruck production and making it profitable will take at least 12-18 months.

Tesla (TSLA) Q3 2023 Performance

Tesla (TSLA) Q3 2023 Financial Summary (unaudited).
Tesla (TSLA) Q3 2023 Financial Summary (unaudited). Credit: Courtesy of Tesla, Inc. (complete PDF below).

During the TSLA Q3 2023 Earnings Call, CEO Elon Musk stated that the company’s energy storage business is becoming its highest-margin segment. Tesla delivered 4 gigawatt-hours (GWh) of energy storage in Q3. Tesla’s energy and services business contributed around half a billion dollars to the Q3 profit alone.

As we can see in the Financial Summary table above, despite the low number of vehicle deliveries in Q3, total revenue still showed growth compared to Q3 2022 year-over-year (YoY). However, Tesla’s gross profit slid down YoY, this was mainly due to the massive decline of 7.2% in gross margin.

Total GAAP gross margin has been on a steady decline this year because of the constant price drops of Tesla cars in 2023.

Update: Despite the stock market crash speculations all around, TSLA stock gained +$2.77 (1.31%) this morning to reach $214.85 (Monday 23 Oct, 11:19 am GMT-4). The rest of the trading day is still ahead of us.

Tesla Model Y Accessories by EVANNEX (Sponsored Banner).
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Tesla Q3 2023 Earnings Call

Let’s listen to Tesla’s Q3 2023 Earnings Call that starts with Elon Musk’s opening remarks giving us Cybertruck updates, FSD 12 status, and other company updates.

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Tesla (TSLA) Q3 2023 Financ… by Iqtidar A

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Iqtidar Ali
Iqtidar Alihttp://www.teslaoracle.com
Iqtidar has been writing about Tesla, Elon Musk, and EVs for more than 3 years on XAutoWorld.com, many of his articles have been republished on CleanTechnica and InsideEVs, maintains a healthy relationship with the Tesla community across the Social Media sphere. You can reach him on Twitter @IqtidarAlii

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