Elon Musk predicts FSD will have 1 intervention per year, Tesla employees get v12.4.1, external testers on the weekend



At last, Tesla (TSLA) CEO Elon Musk broke his silence on the release of the next version of the Full Self-Driving (FSD) software.

In response to a post on X yesterday, Musk announced that FSD v12.4.1 is going out to Tesla employees today. If all goes well, this version should be deployed to a limited number of external beta testers.

“FSD 12.4.1 releases today to Tesla employees. If that goes well, then it will be released to a limited number of external customers this weekend,” he stated.

This statement by Elon Musk gives us two pieces of new information — Tesla is skipping the public release of v12.4 and even the v12.4.1 is not going to be a wide release.

As we reported earlier this week, FSD v12.4 is experiencing major bugs. Tesla skipping to the next sub-version proves this. The automaker is still cautious to not roll out even the improved v12.4.1 update to the public.

The limited release of FSD v12.4.1 to non-employees is also tied to the condition that no major bugs are encountered in 3-4 days of testing before the weekend.

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Elon Musk’s post wasn’t limited to the FSD v12.4 update’s rollout schedule. He also gave interesting new information and predictions about FSD’s future versions and its reliability.

“There are a massive number of changes to this build. It should arguably be called v13, but we’re sticking to 12 😂,” Musk further gave details of the improvements implemented in vFSd v12.4.1.

Talking about the future versions in the pipeline, he said “Two other versions are in earlier stages of testing: 12.5 and 12.6, which could be called v14 and v15”.

The Tesla FSD team has already started the development of v12.5 and v12.6. Elon Musk has talked about v12.5 before but he has now disclosed that v12.6 is also in the works.

Tesla can change version naming as the automaker in gaining confidence with FSD navigating the city streets with fewer and fewer human driver interventions. Elon Musk has coined the term Miles Per Intervention (MPI) for this phenomenon.

Now in the same X post, Elon Musk made an interesting prediction. He said that Tesla FSD is getting to a point where it will have only 1 intervention per year of driving.

“We are starting to get to the point where, once known bugs are fixed, it will take over a year of driving to get even one intervention,” Musk predicted.

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A vehicle driven in a single year is a variable that relates to the individual needs and habits of every car owner. IMO, it would’ve been better if Elon Musk stayed with the Miles Per Intervention (MPI) measurement metric.

According to data, a vehicle is driven 14,263 miles (22,954 km) per year on average. There is a variation of this average miles driven per year in each US state.

We asked Elon Musk on X if he could give an MPI figure that can tell us how many miles a Tesla vehicle will be able to drive itself without an intervention on average. Musk hasn’t responded yet but as soon as he do we will be letting you know.

Let the world know your thoughts in the comments section below.

Video: Testing FSD v12.3.6 on a Tesla Model X luxury electric SUV.
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Iqtidar Ali
Iqtidar Alihttp://www.teslaoracle.com
Iqtidar has been writing about Tesla, Elon Musk, and EVs for more than 3 years on XAutoWorld.com, many of his articles have been republished on CleanTechnica and InsideEVs, maintains a healthy relationship with the Tesla community across the Social Media sphere. You can reach him on Twitter @IqtidarAlii


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